The survey of the Center for Public Studies zip with a sampling error estimate of 3.0% and 95% confidence percentage is one of the most reliable studies when measuring the national political developments. The survey of the months' May-June "2009, one of three set for this year, fifteen hundred people consulted in 146 communes in the country, carrying a major impact on the presidential race. As a result the question "Who would you vote? Piñera figure at 37%, 30% Frei, Marco Enriquez Ominami 13% and candidates Juntos Podemos, Jorge Arrate, the MAS Alejandro Navarro Adolfo Zaldivar and PRI marginal result of 1.0%. These data triggered a series of political movements and strategies for the next presidential election is worth record.
1. The Evolution of Frei's Candidacy
Faced with the question posed to respondents enrolled in the voter list on who you think will be the next President, the flag bearer of the right totaled 45%, Frei gets 36% and Enriquez Ominami who had not appeared previously in this item, you get 3.0%.'s important is the change which has the same question between the measurements of November-December 2008 and May-June 2009 in which Piñera low of 51% to 47% and rises explosively Frei of a 5 % to 35% made that gives the best performance of presidential policy and shortens the distance with Piñera leaving it in a dead heat in the presidential runoff.
2.La evolution of the nomination of Enriquez-Ominami
One of the most desired was to know the evolution of the candidacy of Marco Enríquez-Ominami against that of Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, because telephone surveys before the CEP ventured a possible tie of forces between these candidates. This did not happen and the support to consign CEP Enriquez-Ominami of 13% of accessions that although considerable support in comparison to the other candidates left sideline receiving support from 1% however, still a determining factor in the presidential process and predicted the most enthusiastic adherents.
So even if 13% is a significant figure represents a political defeat as you can not stop the advance of Frei succeeds or complicate in a runoff. However, its growth has revealed other effects which is that growth has slowed and prevented Piñera voter discontent of the Coalition is shifted to the right.
Finally, the survey lays bare the real threat is of the candidate, as 58% of respondents claim to have decided not to vote for him, leaving his maximum potential vote by 31% (adding 11% of voters decided to support him and he sees 20% likely) putting a ceiling on their options to increase support and reach the second round.
3 .- The inheritance is not transferred to the President
President Michelle Bachelet heads the better assessment of political figures with a historic 73% of respondents approving and 66% support for the way the government is conducting. This can be transcendental deliver when electoral support for the bearer to continue his program of government. However, in contrast to the fact that their popularity has not been transferred to the candidate of the coalition, to this end the President shall take the decision to transform the membership of citizens in electoral strength nominative. By now the flow has no presidential political heir.
Tags: Bachelet, zip, Coalition, Poll, Presidential
